Brazil
Brasil
Overall NDC Equity Score
Average
Emissions Reductions
Exemplary
NDC implementation will lead to major and fair reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, per historical responsibility.
Gender Justice
Critically Deficient
NDC has significant gaps in addressing gender mainstreaming, potentially not including gender at all.
Youth inclusion
Insufficient
NDC made an effort to include young people in the NDC development process, but does not provide measures for sustained inclusion.
Summary
Brazil is a Top 20 global emitter of greenhouse gases. While not a developed country or a major historical emitter, Brazil plays a key role in the climate space due to the scale of its emissions, as it ranks as the 6th largest emitter globally and is the world’s largest source of forest-related emissions. The Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector is the main driver of Brazil’s emissions, with over 93% of the deforested area in the country linked to illegal deforestation. However, indigenous peoples and traditional communities play a crucial role in forest protection, safeguarding one-third of the country’s forests.
Brazil’s latest NDC is its most ambitious to date. It includes extensive context on national policies and projects dedicated to climate action, with a strong focus on adaptation. The 2035 mitigation target aims for an economy-wide 59-67% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels, intending to reach net-zero by 2050. However, according to Climate Action Tracker and various Brazilian environmental and non-governmental organizations, this NDC is not fully aligned with the 1.5ºC target, though it is compatible with limiting global warming below 2ºC.
For gender mainstreaming Brazil’s NDC acknowledges gender as a factor influencing vulnerability to climate change but does not explicitly prioritize women’s inclusion or empowerment. Gender is grouped with other social dimensions in its National Adaptation Guidelines. Nonetheless, Brazil has enacted significant gender equality measures, such as the Maria da Penha Law and Law 14.611/2023 for equal pay. Institutions like the Ministry of Women and inter-ministerial councils promote gender equity, though progress has been uneven, particularly during conservative administrations. Historic and systemic inequalities continue to challenge gender mainstreaming in climate and public policy.
For youth inclusion Brazil’s NDC acknowledges age-related vulnerability, it lacks explicit references to youth inclusion or consultation. However, Brazil has shown a broader commitment to intergenerational justice through initiatives like the National Youth Secretariat (SNJ), the National Youth Council (CONJUVE), and programs such as Juventude Viva and ID Jovem. These aim to promote youth participation in policymaking. Despite institutional progress, structural inequalities rooted in Brazil’s colonial past and religious conservatism continue to limit equitable access and inclusion. As such, meaningful youth engagement in climate policy remains a work in progress.
Highlights
- Most ambitious and detailed NDC yet, including extensive context on national policies and projects dedicated to climate action within the country, with a strong focus on adaptation.
- First time a Brazilian NDC acknowledges the connection between climate change and children and youth, mentioning the “consideration of the rights of children and future generations.” It is also the first time Brazil refers to a “just transition” and “climate justice.”
- Brazil has demonstrated a growing commitment to advancing its climate agenda through a range of programs, strategic plans, and policy reforms. These actions signal a broader political will to align national development with the global climate objectives.
Lowlights
- Brazil is limiting the country’s climate ambition to 2035, not aligned with the 1.5ºC goal. National policies and initiatives will only be responsible for 59% of emissions reductions (below 2005 levels), corresponding to a limit of 1.05 GtCO2e. Beyond that, achieving 67% mitigation (limiting emissions to 850 MtCO2e) will be conditioned to the use of carbon market credits, “through the international transfer of mitigation results (ITMOs) generated in its territory”.
- Brazil’s limited representation of women and gender-diverse people in its NDC highlights a critical gap in the country’s approach to inclusive climate governance. While the NDC briefly acknowledges gender as a factor influencing vulnerability, it fails to outline concrete mechanisms for ensuring the participation of women and gender-diverse groups in climate decision-making.
- Brazil’s limited representation of youth in its NDC reflects a broader lack of inclusivity in its climate policy framework. The NDC does not meaningfully address how climate change affects different population groups in distinct ways, based on age, gender, socioeconomic status, or geographic location. This generalized approach risks reinforcing existing inequalities and overlooking the specific vulnerabilities and capacities of youth.
Key Recommendations
Brazil’s latest NDC outlines the following mitigation targets. First, it aims to reduce net emissions with a “bandwidth” of 59% – 67% below 2005 levels by 2035, corresponding to an emissions cap of between 1.05 – 0.85 GtCO2e, respectively. Also, Brazil has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Regarding the 2035 target, the 59% reduction is expected to be achieved solely through domestic policies. Any additional reduction beyond that would rely on international transfer of mitigation results (ITMOs) generated within Brazil’s territory. So the 67% target can be interpreted as a “conditional target” of the Brazilian NDC. According to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analysis, Brazil’s NDC target is almost sufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement, with a temperature rise below 2ºC. But CAT and some environmental organizations and climate activists from Brazil point out that Brazil’s NDC 3.0 is still not ambitious enough to achieve the 1.5ºC goal.
Brazil’s NDC briefly acknowledges gender and age as dimensions of climate vulnerability but lacks targeted measures or inclusive consultations. While Brazil has passed significant legislations like the Maria da Penha Law and Law 14.611/2023 on equal pay, gender equality efforts have faced regressions, notably during Bolsonaro’s presidency. Intergenerational justice has developed as well, with institutional efforts such as the National Youth Secretariat and youth participation programs. However, youth were not explicitly included in the NDC’s development. These omissions suggest a top-down approach, limiting meaningful engagement with women and young people.
For Gender Justice
- When implementing the latest NDC, Brazil should embed gender focal points in all climate-relevant ministries (Environment, Energy, Agriculture, Infrastructure, etc.) to ensure gender is integrated at every stage of policy planning and implementation. These focal points should collaborate with the Ministry of Women and civil society networks to promote a consistent, holistic, and gender-responsive approach.
- During NDC implementation, Brazil should establish targeted funding initiatives for women-led and gender-diverse grassroots climate initiatives, including access to climate adaptation finance and innovation grants. These programs should prioritize rural, Afro-Brazilian, Indigenous, and LGBTQIA2S+ communities.
- Brazil’s NDC should include evidence, such as statistics, case studies, or data, demonstrating how climate change disproportionately affects people based on social factors like gender. Recognizing these differences is essential to designing effective and equitable climate solutions. Assuming uniform impacts risks overlooking those who are most vulnerable and in need of targeted support.
- In Brazil’s NDC, references to women and gender are limited to their vulnerability to climate impacts. While it is true that gender influences the unequal effects of the climate crisis, it is equally important to recognize that women and gender-diverse groups are necessary to drive innovative and inclusive climate solutions. Although the NDC outlines various plans and programs, none explicitly address how these initiatives will include, empower, or benefit women and gender-diverse groups. Thus, to strengthen gender justice, the NDC should clearly define how women and gender-diverse groups will be involved in the design, implementation, and leadership of climate actions.
For Youth Inclusion
- In Brazil’s NDC, references to young people are primarily framed around their vulnerability to climate change, with little attention given to their role as active contributors to climate solutions. While the NDC outlines a range of plans and programs, it fails to specify how these initiatives will include, empower, or benefit youth. To advance intergenerational justice, the NDC should clearly outline the mechanisms for meaningful youth involvement in the design, implementation, and leadership of climate policies and solutions.
- The NDC should shed light on concrete examples of grassroots and large-scale initiatives led by youth. Collaborating with organizations such as Youth Climate Leaders or Engajamundo offers a valuable opportunity to integrate youth perspectives into climate policy and the NDC while highlighting the meaningful contributions young people are already making in the fight against climate change.
- Ensure meaningful and diverse youth participation in the development of Brazil’s NDC. This should actively engage young people from a wide range of backgrounds, including different genders, racial, ethnic, religious, and geographical communities. However, instead of simply listening to their insights, their perspectives should be integrated into the drafting and decision-making stages of the NDC to ensure it reflects the priorities of these communities.
- Develop strategies co-authored with youth stakeholders that outline priorities, responsibilities, timelines, and indicators to measure youth involvement and impact in climate action.
- Allocate dedicated funding or grants within the NDC for youth-led climate initiatives at the different levels of government, including both mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Authors
