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European Union

Core analysis of the European Union’s NDC 3.0 was conducted Spring 2026

Overall NDC Equity Score

Aspiring

+

Emissions Reductions

Average

The NDC implementation will lead to major and fair reductions in GHG emissions, per historical responsibility.

+

Gender Justice

Exemplary

The NDC includes gender and mentions women as stakeholder who can drive change for climate action.

+

Youth Inclusion

Exemplary

The NDC is youth inclusive and provides strategies for long-term youth empowerment and meaningful youth inclusion.

Summary

The EU is a unique player in the climate space, with 27 countries who contribute to and negotiate climate policy as a group, submitting a joint NDC for all Member States and cooperating with Iceland and Norway for implementation. Considered a global leader in climate action through policies such as the European Green Deal, the EU leverages on being the third largest global economy to induce companies trading with the Union to adopt its standards, coined the ‘Brussels Effect’. The EU’s composition makes it a remarkable example at the international level of how democratic processes, although lengthy, can transform into ambitious political commitments.

 

But the EU is also a Top 20 emitter, one of the six top largest emitters and a historical emitter, accounting for an estimated 5.95% of global emissions. Following ratification of the Paris Agreement, the European Union set an initial target of at least 40% economy-wide reduction. With the European Green Deal (2019), it committed to reach climate neutrality by 2050, becoming binding in 2021 with the European Climate Law. The updated 2025 NDC, which covers a period up to 2035 and follows the 2020 NDC and 2023 update, sets as a fully unconditional commitment to achieve a net domestic reduction of at least 55% by 2030, and an indicative contribution of 66.25-72.5% by 2035 compared to 1990. The Commission is currently drafting proposals for a 90% net emissions reduction by 2040. Alarmingly, Europe is warming faster than any other regions of the world and the Mediterranean region is warming 20% faster than global average, with increasingly devastating consequences for ecosystems and local communities at every level of temperature increase.

 

Gender mainstreaming.The EU recognises the importance of gender justice to achieving climate goals. Its NDC explicitly frames women both as a vulnerable group and as active agents, leaders and decision-makers in climate action, with Member States increasingly recognising the necessity of gender justice nationally and empowering women to positions of greater power. Women are recognised as disproportionately affected by climate change, particularly by energy and transport poverty. But the NDC does not report binding targets or accountability mechanisms and lacks gender-disaggregated data. Women still only account for only 26.7% of members in the highest decision-making bodies, and gender is not mainstreamed across all sectoral policies. Concerning lack of mention of LGBTQIA+ people, intersectionality, and gender-based and sexual violence.

 

Youth inclusion. The EU NDC explicitly recognises the vulnerability of children and youth to climate change as well as their centrality as “agents of change”. It also indicates a commitment to their meaningful engagement in decision-making processes, but without established binding budgetary commitment or specific targets in the NDC to achieve this aim. Across the NDC, youth is not consistently included when relevant, such as in the adaptation strategy. Other notable gaps include the lack of an intergenerational dimension and child-sensitive commitments on access to information. The newly announced 2026 Strategy on Intergenerational Fairness could provide a step in the right direction.

Highlights

  • Time-bound roadmap with escalating, legally binding and unconditional targets.
  • Recognises both agency and vulnerability for gender and youth matters.
  • Possible application of the Brussels Effect to the NDC to leverage its impact.
  • Clear integration of biodiversity-climate nexus.
  • Reiterated commitment in remaining the world’s leader in climate finance.

Lowlights

  • Effort is insufficient with 2035 target being indicative and non-binding.
  • Fossil fuel subsidies mentioned are considerably high, with the EU recognising this problem.
  • Gender commitments are expressed in the form of non-binding aspirations, with no mention of data requirements or accountability mechanism; para 111 narrowed to three intersectionalities (does not cover all women); concerning lack of mention of LGBTQIA+ people, intersectionality, and gender-based and sexual violence. No disaggregated data.
  • Youth remains insufficiently considered, lacking consideration in para 109 and with expressed measures remaining voluntary, without formal consultation or measurable budget commitments. No disaggregated data.
  • Lack of proper accounting of military emissions: although not a requirement, it is an incredibly relevant structural gap for a significant arm exporter, especially considering the climate and humanitarian impacts of ongoing conflicts which disproportionately affect women and youth, and the overall contribution of military-related activities to GHG emissions.
  • No new commitments for climate finance and full fossil fuel phase out.
  • Not enough mention or consideration of indigenous peoples.

Key Recommendations

On emissions, the EU’s NDC 3.0 commitment to reduce net GHG emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 is fully unconditional and legally binding. But current efforts remain insufficient for a 1.5 trajectory, and the 2035 target remains indicative.

 

The EU views gender justice as central to climate goals, and recognises women both as disproportionately affected and agents of change. But commitments are phrased as aspirations, with no binding targets for representation, disaggregated data, or accountability mechanisms.

On youth, the NDC does not consistently name young people as vulnerable groups or decision-makers, with a sole reference in para 112 and no mention of youth in the list of vulnerable groups in adaptation. Consultations remain voluntary and no clear budget is established to guarantee youth engagement.

 

Future updates of the EU NDC will need to address these gaps and beyond, to include military emissions and an immediate phase out from fossil fuel subsidies.


For Gender Justice

  • Women’s organisations shall be systematically included and consulted.
  • Gender-disaggregated data.
  • Participation should not be framed as aspirational but become a clear and binding target.
  • Recognition of LGBTQIA+ people, intersectionality, and the link between climate change and gender-based violence (including sexual violence).
  • Increased recognition of indigenous peoples.

For Youth Inclusion

  • Youth must be included in para 109 of the NDC, which recognises that certain groups have different adaptive capabilities in terms of climate adaptation.
  • Consultations should not be voluntary but acquire a defined role in the NDC.
  • Youth should be represented in EU delegations to the UNFCCC.
  • Inclusion of intergenerational equity lens in its future NDCs and related commitments.
  • Increased recognition of indigenous youth.

NDC Ambassadors and Authors

Marie Touchon

NDC Ambassador, Marie Touchon (she/her/hers) is a French interdisciplinary marine conservationist, science communicator, and biodiversity and climate advocate, who integrates research, communication, and policy to support biodiversity conservation. In research, she is passionate about using participatory and interdisciplinary approaches to study socially just marine conservation. Marie supports and amplifies youth voices in biodiversity and climate policymaking at national, regional, and international levels.

Chiara Guerra

NDC Ambassador, Chiara Guerra (she/her) is a charismatic young legal professional specialising in international and EU law, with a focus on ocean governance, climate policy, and human/ gender rights. At the UN Office of Legal Affairs (Codification Division), she contributed to the work of the UNGA Sixth Committee and International Law Commission, collaborating in drafting sections of the 2025 ILC Report. She represented the UN Major Group for Children and Youth at BBNJ PrepCom2, and followed climate negotiations at SB62 and COP30 with the same drive to make legal complexity legible to those outside the room. This year, she is a Senior Delegate of the Young Ambassadors Society at SB64 and COP31 negotiations. At the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, she monitors climate litigation across the Italian and Spanish jurisdictions, and as the Italian Ambassador at the International Youth Council on Gender Equality she leads and coordinates a national team of six Fellows that engages with diverse stakeholders to shape national gender policy. Chiara joined the 2026 cohort of the Ocean Leaders Fellowship programme of Sustainable Ocean Alliance and recently joined CYMG to the UNEP as Contact Point for the Mediterranean Action Plan – Barcelona Convention.

Leona Katalinić

NDC Ambassador, Leona Katalinić (she/her) is an aspiring diplomat from Croatia, deeply passionate about international law, human rights, and global governance. Alongside her research, she proudly serves as a United Nations Online Volunteer which is a stepping stone toward her ultimate dream of officially joining the UN to shape global policy and international relations. Leona is highly focused on exploring legal toolkits, policy frameworks, and multilateral negotiations to drive systemic change. Through her analytical work on the NDC Equity Tracker, she focused on the legal and diplomatic accountability of state commitments. Outside of her research and advocacy work, she loves diving into lively debates, traveling to new places, listening to music, and reading classics.

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Embracing Climate Equity to Shape an Equitable and Sustainable World

“2024 must be a year of ambitious emissions reduction and support for people facing the worsening effects of climate change. We need youth-led programs that grow understanding and accountability to build a livable future.”