Mexico
México
Overall NDC Equity Score
Aspiring
Emissions Reductions
Insufficient
The NDC has significant gaps in planning ambitious emissions reductions goals, ignoring the need for sustainable climate action.
Gender Justice
Exemplary
The NDC references women as important stakeholders and are mentioned as decisionmakers who can drive change for climate action. Just the same, both women and the LGBTQIA+ communities are recognizes as populations whose vulnerabilities increase due to the climate crisis.
Youth Inclusion
Aspiring
The NDC has measures for long-term youth empowerment and inclusion and there are strategies to provide training and awareness for youth to learn about climate action.
Summary
Mexico navigates between being one of the world’s biggest polluters, ranking among the top 20 globally, rising from 14th in 2019 (WRI, Climate Watch) to 11th in recent years (Climate Watch), and also being one of the countries with the greatest inequality and most vulnerable to climate risks. This dichotomy is also reflected in its approach to assuming responsibility, or rather, its attempts to minimize it.
Due to its emissions volume, its economic standing as one of the world’s top 20 economies, its geopolitical power, and its proximity to the United States, Mexico holds a leading regional role in Latin America. In the global climate arena, Mexico takes a leading position on issues of human rights, feminism, indigenous peoples, local communities, and youth. However, its conciliatory role within the EIG often leaves it under the influence of more powerful countries, such as Switzerland or the United States, which shape its climate policies.
The NDC 3.0 reflects this situation, prioritizing fossil fuel-based development over a just transition. The goals could be ambitious if they didn’t conflict with exploration plans and increased oil and gas production; their impact on emissions reduction would be minimal.
The real impact will be in the adaptation approach with the military focus as an affront to civil society, which for years has endured the impacts of the climate crisis and the abuse of power by the army during its most vulnerable moments. The government would be happy to have a military with strong bases, but its citizens are either underwater or under fire.
Gender mainstreaming. Gender is incorporated as a key cross-cutting axis. Axis A: Intersectional gender perspective. This axis establishes actions for a feminist and intersectional climate policy, recognizing the differentiated impacts of climate change and the role of people of different genders as agents of change. In addition, the Strategic Plan on Gender, Human Rights, and Climate Change was adopted, which guides climate policy and ensures that mitigation and adaptation measures integrate human rights, inclusion, and social justice.
Youth inclusion. It is included in a cross-cutting axis, recognizing their differentiated vulnerability to climate impacts. The NDC highlights mechanisms for meaningful youth participation in implementation and monitoring, while supporting child and youth networks. It also mentions their participation in the consultation process through surveys and workshops.
Highlights
- Set an absolute goal instead of a relative one.
- Integration of a loss and damage approach.
- A largely participatory process that seeks to integrate cross-cutting issues.
Lowlights
- In the oil and gas sector, the focus is solely on reducing methane and other greenhouse gas emissions from oil production.
- Consider natural gas as a clean or transitional energy source.
- The military security approach in the adaptation axis.
Key Recommendations
The Mexican government has committed to an absolute unconditional net emissions range of 364-404 MtCO2e, and a conditional target of 332-363 MtCO2e by 2035 contingent on international finance. Neither of these targets aligns with limiting warming to 1.5°C, in fact the NDC 3.0 it makes clear that its line is 2°C. The true strategy lies in the Mexico Plan (2025-2030) and the National Development Plan (2025-2030), which clearly outline the Mexican government’s plan to increase oil and gas exploration and production, including the reactivation of hydraulic fracturing under the pretext of “complex geological deposits.”
This strategy is further reinforced in PEMEX’s strategic plan (2025-2030). The inclusion of gender and youth issues in the participatory processes for creating the NDC 3.0 is one of the Mexican government’s greatest achievements, resulting in a feminist climate policy established in a very specific, separate plan. However, much remains to be done; the representation process must be reviewed, lessons learned from past experiences, and ways found to extend it to more regions.
For Gender Justice
- Integrate women, girls, and the LGBTQ+ community into the methodological design processes to make the processes more focused and from the ground.
- It is necessary to reach frontline communities, such as Indigenous, local, and rural communities. This requires increased funding for consultations and close collaboration with these communities.
- It is also crucial to more concretely integrate the LGBTQ+ community, transgender people, and sex workers, recognizing them not only as vulnerable groups whose situations can be exacerbated by the effects of extreme climate risks, but also as groups of leadership and resilience.
For Youth Inclusion
- Establish a fund to support youth-led projects and training programs.
- Define key performance indicators like the number of youth represented during the consultation and training processes.
- Create innovation hubs for youth to develop and formalize their ideas and potentially be funded.
- Make a formal youth consultative process institutionalized by SEMARNAT.
- Develop programs that can help connect youth with opportunities in different areas like scholarships, internships, jobs, etc.
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