European Union

1. Introduction and Overview

To achieve the 1.5°C objective outlined in the Paris Agreement, the European Union’s (EU) NDC submitted in 2020 has as a primary goal to create a climate-neutral EU by 2050. The EU has a 2030 single-year target of 55% carbon emissions reduction from the reference year of 1990. This is a long-term, low greenhouse gas emission development strategy that covers all twenty-seven EU member states. The geographical scope no longer covers the UK, given Brexit was finally implemented in 2020, instead covering the remaining 27 member states. Certain measures, such as the EU Emissions Trading System, also extend to Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway (EEA-EFTA states). To meet this target, the EU has multiple frameworks such as the European Green Deal, economic strategies such as the European Union recovery instrument next Generation EU (NGEU), EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), and Land-Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) regulations. The overall implementation of this goal is reflected in the “Fit for 55” legislative package from the European Commission published in July 2021.   Each member state has its own reduction target, under EU Regulation 2018/842 for 2030 from the reference year 2005, which ranges between 0% emissions reduction for Bulgaria and a 40% reduction for Sweden and Luxembourg. 

These targets and their respective implementation frameworks are far more ambitious than the first NDC in 2016 which aimed for a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. The NDC as a whole is more comprehensive, transparent, and ambitious than in 2016. The first EU NDC was composed of 5 pages whereas now the updated NDC is composed of 19 pages, including tables for the detailed planning processes to implement such targets. This is a first positive step forward. Nonetheless, the 2020 NDC is still deemed unambitious. According to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the EU’s current NDC goals will only achieve a >3°C scenario, making it currently incompatible with the Paris Agreement.  A stronger mid-way goal of between 58% and 70% reduction is necessary, according to CAT, and the typically advocated necessary target for 2030 is 65% according to European Civil Society and NGOs, such as Climate Action Network Europe. 

Overall, this analysis will emphasise the need for a more ambitious target while taking into consideration essential questions of gender, youth and intergenerational equity, climate justice, and Indigenous rights. 

Emissions Overview

The previous Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) target of the EU, the 20% emissions reduction (as of the base year 1990) target for 2020, was met and even exceeded with the EU decreasing emissions by 24% between 1990 and 2019. At a member state level, most countries appear to be on track, although the European Environmental Agency (EEA) expects several countries will need to increase their efforts and are meeting targets due to an unsustainable emissions drop resulting from Covid-19 measures. Germany, for example, with its impressive reduction of 40.8% since 1990 is thought to not have been able to meet its 2020 target without the pandemic measures which allowed for a significant drop in the transport and energy sectors. At a European level, the most significant industry which saw CO2 declines was power plants. Sectors such as international aviation have not been reducing emissions - instead, there was a 3% rise in emissions between 2018 and 2019. According to the European Environment Agency (EEA), the current efforts will see an emission reduction of 36% by 2030 despite the increased target of 55% target reduction. Other sources such as the European Environmental Bureau, as cited by Climate Scorecard, instead suggest that by the time the 55% goal had been set, the EU was already expecting to reduce emissions by 46% by 2030 - meaning that the jump in targets wasn’t in fact 15% but 9%. This indicates that the target was not as ambitious as it could be, instead of remaining close to what appeared to be achievable with current efforts. While it is important to create emissions reductions paths that are realistic and achievable, it is simply not enough.  

On the whole, the EU has thus far been achieving its emissions reduction target, but this is not yet a cause for celebration. It is the easier path to opt for lower targets that are easier to meet instead of pushing to higher targets. The EU cannot afford to take this easier path in a worsening climate context, with European landscapes and cities already suffering from climate catastrophes with Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and Belgium’s disastrous 2021 floodings. In addition, the EU aims to play a leadership role internationally. Finally, it is necessary to take into consideration the role of Covid-19 measures in enabling the meeting of targets - the pandemic’s positive effect on emissions reductions is not sustainable as it cannot be replicated and has in fact engendered new challenges in areas such as employment and gender which have to be taken into consideration. 

Note on Civil Society Inclusion

The primary method of civil society inclusion outlined in the NDC is through a public consultation for the 2030 Climate Plan, which was held between the 31st of March 2020 and the 23rd of June 2020. There are two gaps in the consultation, one relating to equal representation and the second to the design of the consultation. Firstly, the majority of respondents were citizens (80%), followed by companies (5.01%) and business associations (4.86%), then 3.08% were NGOs and 1.17% Academic & research institutions. It is disappointing that there was nearly a cumulative 10% of respondents are business or company affiliated, rather than NGOs or other civil society bodies. A business perspective will typically highlight the interests of a sector which is motivated by economic growth - an interest that does not necessarily align with a just transition. Moreover, representation per nationality is unequal, the consultation is overwhelmingly responded to by Germans (53%). France is the second most represented with 13% and the majority of other European countries remain at 1% contribution to this consultation. It should be noted that this consultation is led at an EU-level and there are on occasion national-level consultations. Secondly, the categories identified in the consultation include nationality and type of respondent (citizens, business, NGO…) but there are no identified categories that are published relating to age or gender which would have been useful to understand intergenerational differences and priorities, as well as evaluate the position of women. 

2. Commitment to Gender 

The word “gender” is mentioned a total of 6 times in the NDC submission, the majority of which are under section 4 on Planning Processes. The NDC explicitly mentions the interconnectedness of gender and environment: “The EU NDC is prepared in the context of the EU’s commitment to gender equality and cross-cutting priorities, as articulated in commitments such as the European Pact on Gender Equality” as well as committing to “integrating the dimensions of human rights and gender equality by Member States into their national plans, strategies under the EU Energy Union Governance Regulation”. An effort, therefore, has been made to recognise gender in a cross-cutting manner. The NDC outlines the need for gender-responsive measures, which according to the UN Development Programme entails “outcomes that reflect an understanding of gender roles and inequalities and which make an effort to encourage equal participation and equal and fair distribution of benefits”. This is “accomplished through gender analysis and gender inclusiveness”. But why should we stop here? The EU has an opportunity through climate targets to adopt gender-transformative practices - to actively include and transform gendered experiences and inequalities. 

Generally, the NDC itself is vague in its commitment to gender equality. Instead, it is necessary to look at how gender equality is implemented in tools such as the NGEU, the COVID-19 recovery package, of which 37% must be allocated to climate projects and is a significant tool for meeting the NDC. It was found to be lacking in its consideration of women according to a study commissioned by the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament. The study’s principal demand is the need to take into consideration costs for care and employment opportunities for women - elements that are essential to a sustainable economic recovery and a greener future. This is an example in which the mechanisms put in place to achieve the 55% target can improve in their gender goals, especially in light of the Covid-19 pandemic.

3. Youth & Intergenerational Justice

Youth and questions of intergenerational equity need to be addressed more explicitly in the EU NDC. The effects of climate change on young people and their futures is a theme found recurrently in speeches made by EU officials such as Von der Leyen and Timmermans yet this 19-page document is void of the words “youth”, “young” and “generation”, except in the context of NGEU. The NGEU recovery instrument is the main tool that addresses generational questions and it describes its goal as “to help Member States to repair the immediate economic and social damages caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Additionally, prepare a better future for European next generation.” It is not a framework targeted to youth, simply it is focused on the notion of strengthening a recovery post-Covid for the next generation. Overall, this NDC does not sufficiently address youth needs. 

One key area of improvement concerning youth would be the nexus of education and green jobs. Unemployment is a key issue in Europe, with 2.979 million young persons unemployed as of May 2021. The green sector has huge potential for growth, for example, according to Switch to Green: “a 1% increase in the rate of growth of the water industry in Europe can create between 10,000 and 20,000 new jobs”. This is just one fraction of the green sector. People-power and jobs are needed to help transition our cities, economies, and agriculture towards a more sustainable future, so investment into creating jobs and training young people in necessary skills is a key and generative step. 

4. Climate Justice & Indigenous Voices

Taking into consideration the notion of Justice in the EU NDC is a multi-layered issue. One unique aspect of the EU NDC is that it applies and takes into consideration the situation of 27 countries with diverse needs and economies. The measures and goals of the NDC are already fitted per the country’s specificities, as each Member State has a different requirement in terms of emissions goals. These are determined by relative wealth, measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita through the Efforts Sharing Regulation (ESR). Bulgaria currently has a 0% reduction goal, meaning it is primarily working towards avoiding increasing emissions as an economy in transition. The Commission recommends that Bulgaria adopts a coal phase-out strategy, which Bulgaria is seeking assistance from the EU in order to implement. The range of national emissions targets, tailored to social and economic considerations, is a clear example of how principles of justice and fairness have been applied in the drafting of the EU NDC. That being said, there should be greater support to ensure that all nations are able to cut down instead of simply stabilising. 

A second important consideration when discussing justice and equity is the role, position, and treatment of Indigenous Communities in Europe as they are disproportionately affected by climate change. Indigenous People have long been communities that know best how to protect the land and therefore it is pivotal to include them in the NDC and other climate strategies. In Europe, the primary Indigenous Communities are Scandinavia's Saamis as well as those found in the Arctic region such as Greenland’s Inuits. The EU NDC mentions Indigenous Communities once as a necessary consideration through mentioning the EU’s support for the adoption of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) in relation to the NDC. Concrete measures on Indigenous Communities are largely lacking from the NDC itself - once again, the position taken is to take into consideration these principles rather than suggest ways that the climate targets can be used to transform them. The 2030 Biodiversity Strategy, a component of the Green Deal and a tool for the achievement of the NDC, is perhaps the largest area in which Indigenous People can be involved given the role of Indigenous knowledge in biodiversity and land conservation. Overall, there is a lot of room in the NDC to create transformative space and roles for indigenous people and other marginalised communities. 

5. Conclusion

To conclude, the EU NDC 2020 is a strong improvement from the previous target but the 55% goal for 2030 is still too low to meet the Paris goal of 1.5°C. A 65% 2030-goal is necessary, not simply ambitious. Moreover, there is room for improvement in this NDC to help outline mechanisms to achieve 1.5°C while actively involving women, youth, and Indigenous Communities. This ranges from involvement in policy-making to job creation with these demographics in mind and funding community-level initiatives. On the whole, the EU NDC, in light of intersectional environmental concerns, is still simply at an “acknowledgment” stage of recognising aspects such as gender and Indigenous Communities rather than at a “transformative” stage. 

This analysis, therefore, suggests the following policy recommendations: 

• Increasing the 2030 goal to 65% emissions reduction from 1990 levels, in line with goals of the Paris Agreement

• Moving beyond acknowledging and respecting the rights of women and Indigenous Communities to creating transformative policy that meaningfully includes them and allows for active participation in achieving emissions reduction goals and gender equality

• Stronger support to help Member States, especially those with weaker economies, meet their emissions goals and support the transition out of coal with COVID-19 recovery and employment in mind

• Investing in green jobs and employment for European youth and women; improving vocational training, ‘green skills’ and quality education in the realm of green jobs (renewable energies, sustainable development, circular economy...) 

• Funding, supporting, and consulting Indigenous Peoples in conservation and biodiversity projects, and local environmental projects

• Enhancing the next NDC by specifically including youth, women,f and Indigenous Communities in the consultation phase, taking their needs into account and including transformative opportunities for them in the Green sphere and the fight for carbon-emissions reduction 

6. References

• “Effort Sharing: Member States' Emission Targets.” Climate Action - European Commission, 16 Feb. 2017, ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/effort_en.

• “Progress Made in Cutting Emissions.” Climate Action - European Commission, 16 Feb. 2017, ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/progress_en.

• Demogenes, Brittany. “European Commission's Goal Is to Have Reduced EU Greenhouse Gas Emissions By 55% Compared to 1990 Levels.” Climate Scorecard, 3 July 2021, www.climatescorecard.org/2021/07/european-commissions-goal-is-to-have-reduced-eu-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-55-compared-to-1990-levels/.

• The Green Employment Initiative, Switch 2 Green, www.switchtogreen.eu/the-green-employment-initiative/.

• “Initiative.” Have Your Say, European Commission. ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12265-2030-Climate-Target-Plan/public-consultation_en.

• Jonker, Henrieke. “How the EU Can Achieve Its Bold New Climate Target.” World Resources Institute, 16 Dec. 2020, www.wri.org/insights/how-eu-can-achieve-its-bold-new-climate-target.

• Poetschke, Felix. “Germany's Greenhouse Gas Emissions down 8.7 Percent in 2020.” Umweltbundesamt, Umweltbundesamt, 19 Mar. 2021, www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/press/pressinformation/germanys-greenhouse-gas-emissions-down-87-percent.

• “Total Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Projections in Europe.” European Environment Agency, 11 May 2021, www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenhouse-gas-emission-trends-7/assessment.

• “Unemployment Statistics.” Unemployment Statistics - Statistics Explained, ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Unemployment_statistics#Youth_unemployment.