Turkey (Türkiye)

Core analysis conducted and presented by Hazal Kara, Duru Barbak, and Firuze Alpaydın of Turkey in August, 2021. Translation by Firuze Alpaydin.

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Executive Summary

Turkey’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) is insufficient in mitigation and adaptation objectives as well as equity concerns. Its primary mitigation plans are as follows:

  • 21% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 in comparison to a Business As Usual scenario, 

  • Utilizing International Market Mechanisms to achieve emissions reductions targets,

  • Increasing the capacity of alternative fuels such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, nuclear, and waste.

The INDC is lacking in a robust plan for ensuring gender equity alongside ambitious climate action and fails to take into consideration how different groups, such as youth, are and will be more impacted by the climate crisis. 

However, the nation’s INDC refers to certain national documents, such as the Climate Change Strategy Document, Climate Change Action Plan, and Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Action Plan, all of which take on a more intersectional approach. Regarding the participation of women and civil society, Turkey’s goals revolve around increasing education and awareness. While these are certainly important, there needs to be a greater effort towards including underrepresented groups in the policy-making process, on local, regional, national, and international scales. 

As of October 2021, the Turkish government has announced that the Paris Agreement will be ratified before the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties which will be held in November 2021. In this respect, the country is expected to update and resubmit its NDC. It is crucial that the updated NDC will be more focused on social inclusion.

Quick Links

  1. Introduction & Current State of Climate Change

Climate change has been a subject of scientific research since about the 1890s and by the 1950s, scientists knew that climate change could present significant risks to people and the planet. Despite the fact that 70 years have passed since then, the inadequacy of the climate policies remains the same. Even the countries with more comprehensive climate policies fail to address the issue from an inclusive perspective and they tend to overlook the vulnerable groups. Considering its geographical position, Turkey is one of the countries that are and will continue to be disproportionately affected by the climate crisis. Most of the climate projections suggest that the Mediterranean region will become progressively drier as rainfall decreases and there will be significate increases in surface temperature compared to the rest of the world, making the already arid region even more prone to drought.

Turkey is highly affected by climate-related hazards. A record-high number of extreme weather events have been reported just in the year 2020, with a total of 984 weather events. Furthermore, 2020 was the third-warmest year since 1971, with the average temperature being 1.4 degrees higher than the 1981-2010 averages. All these demonstrate that climate mitigation and adaptation policies against climate change should be urgently developed and implemented in Turkey. As of October 2021, Turkey is the only G-20 country that has not ratified the Paris Agreement although it is one of the first signatories of the Agreement. However, it is finally announced that the Turkish government is planning to submit the Paris Agreement to the Turkish Parliament for ratification before the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties.

In this study, Turkey’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will be analyzed from a gender and youth-sensitive perspective.

2. Emission Reduction Targets

The emission reduction target given in Turkey’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution mentions up to 21% reduction from the Business as Usual (BaU) level by 2030. However, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if we aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, we need to reduce global emissions by at least 45% by 2030. Moreover, even in this case, the 1.5-degree limit will be surpassed with a 50% probability. It is crucial to set more detailed and ambitious emission reduction targets for different time horizons and a comprehensive plan to phase out fossil fuels production.

3. Adaptation Strategy

Although Turkey’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution mentions mitigation plans rather than adaptation strategy, according to Turkey's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy covering the years 2010-2023 and published by the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, the following measures should be taken to ensure the adaptation to the climate crisis:

  1. Activities shall be accelerated for enhancing water quality that has been degraded due to the negative impacts of climate change.

  2. The capacity to combat animal diseases and plant pests resulting from climate change shall be strengthened.

  3. Activities shall be accelerated to protect and improve natural forests, carry out afforestation, prevent forest fires which may increase due to the negative impacts of climate change, and protect greenhouse sinks which are decreasing due to deforestation.

  4. Activities on combating desertification and erosion will be developed and expanded.

  5. Awareness-raising and training activities on climate change adaptation shall target local administrations, professionals, and the general public; support shall continue for scientific and social efforts, international communication and information exchange, and policy and strategy development efforts.

In the Climate Change Strategy document, various actions to adapt the climate change is provided together with the above items. However, how these will be achieved is not clearly explained. A comprehensive roadmap is not available. It is critical to elaborate and highlight the adaptation strategy.

4. Gender and Women’s Rights

Turkey’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution mentions emission reduction methods for different sectors without incorporating gender equality and women's rights perspectives when addressing this issue. Consequently, it is important to scrutinize the current INDC and the other climate-related strategy and action plan documents.

The current economic state of Turkey is reflected in all sectors (energy, industry, transportation, buildings, agriculture, waste, forestry) that were mentioned in the INDC. It is important to consider gender inequality within all these sectors. According to the United Nations Population Fund, the labor force participation rate of women is 32% and 68% for men, while the unemployment rate for men is 13% and 14.5% for women.

Hence, systemic discrimination against women in terms of economic participation should also be taken into account when developing climate policies. Because it is clear that economically disadvantaged groups are disproportionately affected by extreme weather events and women make up nearly 70 percent of the world's poor.

The reason why the climate crisis affects women more is basically based on sociological reasons, the gender roles defined by society, rather than the biological reasons. A study published in 2006 revealed that women were more affected by the 2003 heat waves in France. This situation is similar in many studies originating from Europe and Asia as well. Women do not only have to deal with the health problems caused by climate-related extreme weather events, they are also more exposed to food insecurity caused by climate change. Eighty percent of the studies focusing on this issue conclude that women are more affected by the climate crisis than men. In the regions where the climate crisis has already severe results, women face these climate risks more. When we take into account the geographical location and the economic state of Turkey, it is clear that women in this country could be affected by climate change more. However, in the current Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of Turkey, the issue is far from being addressed from a gender-sensitive perspective. Similarly, the Climate Change Strategy Document does not refer to gender equality or women's rights.

However, Climate Change Action Plan touches on some of the issues in some parts. For instance, it is mentioned that the training on the efficient use of energy is planned between the years 2011-2020, especially for villagers and women, in order to reduce deforestation and forest damage. When we consider the educational gender gap (especially in science and technology fields) in Turkey, it is crucial to implement such measures. Organizing agricultural production training for women farmers for climate change adaptation and/or incorporating climate change adaptation into existing training activities is another measure provided in the same document. The anticipated implementation period for this measure was 2011-2015 but there are no accessible sources that indicate that both plans have been actualized. An article published by the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry states that 133 female farmers participated in the 5-day training program in Edirne in 2015, but the training is far from being systematic and inclusive. The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan also address similar issues, as in the following statement: “Women are disproportionately affected by climate change, and the number of women who lost their lives in natural disasters is higher than men. Women are also more exposed to the indirect effects of climate change on human health, such as vector-borne, respiratory system, nutrition-related and water-related diseases. The negative effects of climate change on agriculture are negatively reflected especially on women farmers. Studies that directly address this issue in Turkey are still very few, and they mostly remain at the academic level.”  The recognition that the climate crisis affects women more can be considered an important step. However, concrete action is needed beyond the rhetoric. It is critical for Turkey to incorporate the gender perspective in the fight against the climate crisis. Therefore, financial and technical support should be provided to vulnerable groups, including disadvantaged women, on issues related to the climate crisis, gender-sensitive climate policies should be developed, climate-related training programs or training should be strengthened.

There are no resources on individuals outside the binary gender classification and on the climate crisis, but this should not be overlooked in the upcoming Intended Nationally Determined Contribution.

5. Inclusion of Youth

Turkey's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution does not address the climate impacts that young generations face either. The needs and challenges of the future generations are neglected in the national climate policy documents. However, the choices of today's decision-makers will affect today’s young people the most. This issue is often brought up in many reports of the United Nations. According to a report published by the United Nations Children's Fund in August 2021, 820 million children are exposed to extreme heatwaves globally. Children, especially between 0-12 months of age, are more affected by the changes in the temperature compared to adults. Heatwaves cause various serious health problems such as cramps, rashes, and paralysis. It affects not only the health of young people but also their educational attainment.

Climate-related water scarcity also affects children and young people more than adults. Physiological reasons lie behind this result rather than sociological reasons. Young individuals need to consume more food and water per body weight than adults. However, malnutrition causes half of all deaths of children under the age of 5 globally. Globally, 80% of the people who are responsible for bringing water to their homes are women and girls. This causes girls and young women to be disproportionately affected by climate-related water scarcity.

Children are more affected by natural disasters as well. Globally, approximately 335 million children are highly exposed to riverine flooding, 240 million children are highly exposed to coastal flooding and finally, 400 million children live in areas that are highly exposed to tropical cyclones.

According to the United Nations Children's Fund 2021 Report, about 2 billion children live in areas where outdoor air pollution exceeds minimum air-quality guidelines. This level is extremely high for over 1 billion children and this increases the probability of death by 15%. According to the report, more than 99% of children are currently exposed to at least one climate-related hazard, shock, or stress.

Children's Climate Risk Index (CCRI) classifies Turkey as insufficient in terms of poverty and social protection. This also applies to child health and nutritional conditions. However, Turkey is highly ranked in terms of education and hygiene by CCRI. When all these are taken into account, the climate risk of children and young people in Turkey is considered moderate. Turkey ranks 97th in the index among 163 countries.

Fulfilling the nutritional, educational, and similar needs of young generations should be included in the objectives of climate action plans. Policies must be implemented to protect young people from poverty, security vulnerability, and social exclusion. Technical solutions include designing early warning systems and developing air quality monitors. The disproportionate impact of climate change on young people can also be eliminated by more ambitious emissions reduction targets. Finally, Turkey should implement the Sendai Disaster Risk Reduction Framework. The Sendai Framework focuses on the adoption of measures that address the three dimensions of disaster risk (exposure to hazards, vulnerability and capacity, and hazard characteristics) in order to prevent the creation of new risk, reduce existing risk and increase resilience. According to CCRI, Turkey's current implementation status is low (0-0.2% out of 1) and this framework covers the years 2015 - 2030.

6. Inclusion of Civil Society

Turkey’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution does not explicitly include targets and actions which involve civil society. The inclusion of relevant NGOs in plans to promote sustainable transport and alternative fuels can be foreseen, but this is not clearly stated in the document.

On the other hand, Turkey’s Climate Change Strategy Document and Climate Change Action Plan touch upon the participation of civil society. In general, these statements include raising public awareness and organizing projects for public education. Furthermore, it is stated that support will be received from the private sector and related NGOs in the preparation of action plans such as the Energy Efficiency Action Plan and the Transportation Master Plan. Related NGOs will also be included in the process of establishment of the taxation system in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in motor vehicles according to the documents.

Here are some significant impacts that civil society might have to promote the inclusion of climate change risks in policy decision making:

  1. Improving the population’s access to climate information. CSOs might act as a bridge between research institutions and the population, leading to a more direct dialogue.

  2. Giving voice to the most vulnerable groups. CSOs must ensure acknowledgment of the high vulnerability of these groups in public policy, through advocacy processes.

  3. Promoting accountability through example is a strategy to ensure quality and transparency for diverse actors' participation.

  4. Promoting a participatory and inclusive disaster risk reduction approach.

  5. Actively participating in inter-institutional coordination at local and national levels.

The inclusion of civil society and the voice of youth in the policy-making processes is critical both for developing strong and comprehensive climate policies and strengthening the democratic infrastructure of the Republic of Turkey.

A successful example of civil society participation in the climate policy-making process is Peru’s High-Level Commission on Climate Change. The Commission includes representatives of all ministries, environmental NGOs, labor organizations, the public sector, and universities and it is separated into seven technical working groups: Adaptation; REDD; Mitigation and CDM; Research and Technology; Finance; International negotiations; and, Education and Communication.

7. International Market Mechanisms

In the document, Turkey reveals its intention to use carbon credits through international market mechanisms in order to achieve its 2030 emission reduction target in a cost-effective manner.

The concept of carbon trading first came to the fore with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in 1994. The Kyoto Protocol, which is an international treaty that extended the convention and signed by Turkey in 2009, stipulated that developed countries would reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5% on average between 2008 and 2012 compared to 1990. The Kyoto Protocol offered some flexibility mechanisms for countries to make these reductions cost-effectively, and "Emissions Trading" was one of these mechanisms. However, since Turkey is not one of the Annex-B countries with emission reduction obligations, it is not able to benefit from these flexibility mechanisms.

In this context, the Partnership for Market Readiness project which is a technical assistance program aiming at supporting developing countries in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, through effective use of market-based instruments is carried out in partnership with the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urbanization and the World Bank. Within the scope of the project, capacity-building activities were carried out for both the public and private sectors for the emission trading system, which was determined as the most appropriate carbon pricing mechanism for Turkey.

In the upcoming period, it is needed to ensure that the emission trading system reduces greenhouse gas emissions at the highest level and in the most cost-effective way, to check the compliance of the ETS with existing and future policies, to identify missing policy areas, to put into effect the ETS regulations as soon as possible.

8. Gaps in the INDC's Conceptual Framework of Climate Change

The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of Turkey does not mention the urgency of the action needed to combat the climate crisis. Furthermore, it does not set forth a clear link between the human use of fossil fuels and the climate crisis. There is also a lack of perspective that enables addressing climate change as a human rights issue. In the upcoming NDCs, Turkey should build a comprehensive conceptual framework for climate change and emphasize the urgency of this crisis.

9. Conclusion

This study aims to demonstrate that Turkey's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2015 is not comprehensive enough. An updated document is urgently needed, both because it does not take into account the developments in climate science since 2015, and because it lacks in addressing the issue in terms of human rights. It is crucial that the updated NDC focuses on gender equality and emphasizes the rights of younger generations.

9. References

NDC Ambassador Duru Barbak is a climate activist and organizer with Fridays For Future Turkey. Duru is the co-founder of an Instagram blog called 1.5derece (1.5 degrees) which now has over 26k followers and produces content to raise awareness about the climate crisis. Duru is also the country coordinator of Turkey at COY16 (UN Climate Change Conference of Youth), a trained Climate Reality Leader, and makes presentations and speeches about the climate crisis and youth activism.

NDC Ambassador Hazal Aylin Kara (she/they) is a climate justice activist and feminist based in Istanbul. They are a part of the Fridays For Future movement, namely FFF Digital, Youth for Climate Turkey, and the FFF International Newsletter. She is passionate about pushing for an intersectional climate agenda, particularly in her home country of Turkey. Besides activism, they enjoy reading, learning about physics, and snuggling up with their cats.

NDC Mentor Firuze Alpaydin is a Sustainability Expert from Turkey and now working in the private sector. As of January 2021, she is the Climate Ambassador to Turkey, selected by Global Youth Climate Network, an initiative of the World Bank Group. She has also been appointed to be the Focal Point of Green Recovery & Sustainable Finance Task Force by the same initiative. Besides her native language Turkish, she speaks English and French fluently.