NDC Equity Tracker Ambition Report
Note: The following report pulls from the NDC analyses on the NDC Equity Tracker. Please view individual country pages for further context.
Background and Data
As global temperature continues and the impacts of climate change worsen, it is more critical than ever for countries to collectively meet and exceed the targets of the Paris Agreement. In the nearly six years since the signing of the Paris Agreement, the creation and successful implementation of sufficiently ambitious and justice-centered Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), or national climate pledges, has lagged. However, youth climate advocacy highlights the opportunities for countries to increase their emissions reductions and incorporate gender justice, intergenerational equity, civil society access, and other key climate justice and equity considerations into their NDCs.
The 2019 United Nations (UN) Environmental Programme Emissions Gap Report indicates we must reduce emissions by 7.6% every year for the next decade to meet the 1.5 °C target. The 2020 Report adds that we are currently on track for 3 °C warming. Unless we substantially ramp up ambition over the next few years, we will face increasing climate devastation. Each country was due to improve its NDC in 2020, but COVID-19 halted international convenings, dramatically decreasing transparency and accountability. Existing NDCs insufficiently address climate justice and equity, and governments must be accountable to the most impacted communities for improving and successfully implementing their NDCs. Care About Climate’s NDC Equity Tracker provides both a platform and key education structures for international youth to develop local analysis, criticism, and suggestions for growth on their countries’ NDCs.
To date, the analyses contained on ndcequitytracker.org reflect local youth (individuals aged 35 years and younger) perspectives on the NDCs of 27 countries. If the European Union (EU) may be considered to reflect countries in each European subregion, the analyses reflect 19 of 23 UN subregions of the world. Of other key shared-interest or climate-impacted groupings used in international climate negotiations, the analyses include two countries classified as Small Island Developing States, two classified as Least Developed Countries, three classified as members of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, and three classified as members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Based on Climate Watch data, the countries analyzed include 7 Top-Ten emitters, 9 emitters accounting for greater than 0.5% of global emissions, and 11 emitters accounting for less than 0.5% of global emissions, representing in total ~45% of global emissions. Finally, in accordance with the World Bank classification of Gross National Income per capita, 11 countries are classified as high, 8 as upper middle, 6 as lower middle, and 2 as low income.
Gender
In 2016, an analysis conducted by WEDO pointed out that only 64 of 190 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), the first NDCs released in 2015, included any reference to women and gender. Furthermore, even those that did refer to women and gender typically did not include any direct and actionable commitments that highlighted feminist leadership.
The quality of consideration for women’s issues in the content of current NDCs varies widely from one report to the next. However, as a whole, it leaves much to be desired. A significant number of NDCs - including the United States, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Pakistan, and Japan - do not include language on women in any meaningful or concrete way. Without specific plans to fight inequity and further gender justice, especially in high-emitter countries most responsible for climate action, the status quo will continue unchanged.
Despite this need for greater inclusion of women and girls in national climate plans, a number of countries do include commendable efforts to increase inclusion in their current NDCs. Nepal stands out as a country strongly impacted by climate change that has a strategy for implementing gender-responsive climate-smart technologies and practices and at least recognizes women as a group vulnerable to climate change. Canada stands apart from most of its higher emitter counterparts in even mentioning efforts to further gender equality and also points to concrete policies in gender justice, such as the 2021 Federal Pathway to Address Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women, Girls, and 2SLGBTQQIA+ People.
Intergenerational Equity
Intergenerational equity remains an underdeveloped area of climate policy, despite young and future generations facing the greatest consequences of a worsening climate crisis. Countries such as the United States, Nepal, and Mexico make only brief, unsubstantive mentions of youth. Countries such as Japan, Turkey, and Uganda make no mention of young adults at all. Conversely, other countries have established some groundwork for youth inclusion in climate action. Nigeria, for example, references green jobs, enhanced nutrition, education, and immunization as pathways for supporting children and young adults. The UK ramped up the inclusion of youth leading into COP26, through its Civil Society and Youth Advisory Council. The UAE NDC commits to youth development and inclusion, which is reflected by further policy, such as the country’s National Climate Change Plan, which emphasizes the need for capacity building on technical, managerial, and vocational skills for youth. Young people lead on climate change action and some countries are explicitly recognizing this, but more tangible commitments are needed to generate benefits to youth with regard to jobs, education, and stakeholder participation and to recompense young and future generations generally for bearing the brunt of a crisis to which they did not contribute.
Civil Society Inclusion
Civil society, made up of NGOs and the general public, remains systemically repressed in international climate action. In the UNFCCC negotiations, the UN has cracked down on peaceful protest, as observed at a large scale at COP25 in 2019, and any single country government has veto power over all civil society members collectively. Within the NDCs, many countries are placing greater emphasis on civil society inclusion, but real-world civil rights protection and the centering of community groups are frequently in an appalling state. Chile and the United States are two examples of countries communicating greater civil society consultation in their NDCs, but that have continued to crack down on civil society protestors for economic and racial justice. The countries analyzed in this project are collectively poor on both policy language and implementation to protect and support civil society. However, there are some pathways forward. For example, Argentina prepared its NDC in consultation with 15 working groups encompassing: civil society organizations; scientists; universities and study centers; trade unions; youth groups; chambers, councils, and business federations; professional associations; citizen groups; media; social movements; municipalities; indigenous communities; the legislative branch; the judiciary and political parties. Robust inclusion is a critical first step in ensuring everyday people are centered in climate change mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage.
Recommendations and Conclusion
The above do not reflect the entirety of intersecting environmental justice and equity needs in meeting and going beyond existing international climate pledges; sufficient pledge enhancement and implementation necessitate rapid GHG reductions while prioritizing the needs and leadership of communities most impacted by climate change and the injustices of the fossil fuel industry. This project reveals that while many countries are improving emissions commitments and beginning to acknowledge basic components of climate justice, the urgency of the climate crisis remains strongly insufficiently addressed by national climate commitments and actions. Key recommendations for government enhancement and implementation of necessary gender, youth, and civil society measures for the NDCs includes:
Expanding the view of key stakeholders, such as Indigenous Peoples, women and girls, and youth beyond merely “vulnerable” communities, but communities in the lead whose experiences must be at the center of all climate action.
Creating a robust and transparent stakeholder input process for NDC enhancement and evaluation, to ensure that civil society and human rights needs are incorporated into all national climate action.
Make gender commitments with explicit policy changes and improve recruitment of female climate negotiators.
Create tangible policies to address the disproportionate impacts of climate change on young and future generations, including creating good-paying environmental jobs, expanding access to quality education at all levels, and establishing stakeholder seats specifically for youth representatives.
Among countries with the highest incomes and greatest emissions levels, taking financial accountability for past, present, and future impacts of climate change on the most-impacted communities and areas, domestically and internationally.
